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塔里木河流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim's headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt. 相似文献
95.
利用中国1961-2013年661个气象台站观测资料以及亚洲夏季风指数,通过旋转正交分析(REOF)等方法,选择华北河套干旱气候区的代表站,分析了该区域气候干燥度的变化特征,发现该地区整体呈现干旱化趋势。在此基础上讨论了夏季风与气象因子对气候干燥度的影响,结果表明,南亚西区夏季风的年际及整体减弱趋势对华北河套地区气候干燥度的年际趋势变化影响最为显著,主要影响期在20世纪90年代之前,随着区域气候变暖,这种影响程度减弱。各气象要素对气候干燥度的影响存在年际与年代际差异,热力因子的年际变化对干燥度影响较小,而热力因子的年代际变化在20世纪90年代之后对干燥度的影响十分显著。这说明区域气候长期变暖导致当地水汽压差增大,相对湿度减小,空气需要更多的水分才能达到饱和,同时增大了潜在蒸发能力,加剧了华北河套气候区的干旱化。 相似文献
96.
1730年(清雍正八年)7—8月,我国黄淮地区连续暴雨17 d,引起黄河、大运河和淮河暴涨、决堤的大范围洪涝灾害。这是小冰期中相对温暖时段气候背景下的极端气候事件。本文依据历史文献记载复原了1730年夏季暴雨时段的天气实况,绘制了暴雨区域图显示强降雨中心移动动态和水灾地域分布图,概述当年气候特点,指出暴雨事件与台风活动的关联。1730年是太阳活动周极小年的前3年、有重大火山活动,是极强的厄尔尼诺事件后的第2年。这些天气特点和背景条件与现代罕见的1975年河南“75?8暴雨”相似。 相似文献
97.
黄土高原地区NDVI与气候因子空间尺度依存性及非平稳性研究 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
基于MODIS传感器的植被指数产品(MOD13Q1)及50年气候数据,通过地理加权回归与普通最小二乘回归模型对比,对中国黄土高原地区NDVI与气候因子间的空间尺度依存性及非平稳性进行研究,以期准确建立二者间关系.结果表明:① 研究区域内,NDVI与气候因子间存在很强的空间尺度依存关系,相同空间尺度下,年均降水较年均温对NDVI影响的波动性更大;② 与普通最小二乘回归模型相比,地理加权回归模型能够更准确地展现二者间关系;③气候因子对该地区NDVI的影响差异明显,降水存在直接正向影响,而温度的影响则较复杂;④ NDVI与气候因子间沿东北--西南的分布格局体现出区域内不同植被--气候区差异特征.二者间的异质情况还反映出除气候外,人类活动,地形等其他因素对NDVI的影响. 相似文献
98.
福建海坛岛青峰老红砂旋回沉积的粒度特征及其古环境意义 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
福建海坛岛青峰老红砂剖面以棕红色砂层和黄橙色砂层的交替旋回变化为显著特征。通过野外考察、采样和测定分析,对青峰老红砂剖面的粒度特征及其古气候意义进行深入研究。结果表明:(1)青峰剖面棕红色砂层以细砂为主,黄橙色砂层以中砂为主,细砂-中砂在剖面上呈现明显的交替旋回变化;(2)棕红色砂层和黄橙色砂层的粒度频率曲线均以单峰加一细尾为主,含有一定量的粉砂、黏土;概率累积曲线以滚-跳-悬三段式为主,但两种砂层在组分含量、斜率等方面存在差异;(3)粒度参数呈现明显的波动旋回变化,可能指示沉积时期区域风力、搬运动力、化学风化强度方面发生了周期性变化,即棕红色砂层显示了暖湿气候条件下的红壤化过程,黄橙色砂层则显示凉干气候条件下的黄壤化过程。因此,青峰老红砂旋回沉积表明第四纪晚期以来,福建东部沿海的古气候古土壤可能经历了南亚热带(赤红壤)和暖温带(黄壤)的交替变迁。 相似文献
99.
Sandra M. Cahuin Luis A. Cubillos Miguel
iquen Rubn Escribano 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,84(4):591-597
The recruitment rate of Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, was studied to test the hypothesis that long-term environmental variation (regime shifts) had a significant impact on density-dependent processes governing the anchovy recruitment during the period 1963–2004. On the basis of previous defined regimes and turning points for the Humboldt Current System, we identified two groups of years for increased recruitment of anchoveta (1963–1971 and 1986–2004), and one unfavorable period (1972–1985). A common intercept and significantly different slopes were found when the recruitment rate was plotted as a function of the spawning stock biomass during those groups of years, suggesting that density-dependent effects on recruitment were affected during different climate regimes. The favorable (unfavorable) regime was characterized by higher (lower) zooplankton volumes, and with a higher frequency of colder (warmer) waters. Dome-shaped relationships between recruitment rate, spawning stock biomass and SST, were detected with a Generalized Additive Model for the favorable regime. Thus, recruitment could be explained by non-linear effects of environmental variables. Ultimately, climatic regimes are affecting the density-dependent effects on recruitment of anchoveta and the mechanisms involved may be associated with changes in the carrying capacity of the spawning habitat of anchoveta off Peru, which in turn are related with the effects of cold and warm regimes. 相似文献
100.
Over the last 2 years, more than seven million fish and 16,000 birds have died from drought-induced disease and suspected poisoning at Stillwater Lakes, Nevada. Correspondence analysis of water samples taken in June and September 1986, from lakes and reservoirs near Stillwater Lakes and four background lakes/reservoirs (not associated with fauna disease and death), is attempted to investigate the correlation among sites associated with fauna deaths. This analysis identifies high correlation between some Stillwater Lakes sites and boron. A correlation between boron and arsenic is also identified. Leaching and transport of toxins to the Stillwater Lakes system is one hypothesis to explain the wildlife deaths. Other hypotheses include the direct introduction of toxins by groundwater associated with geothermal activity. A natural cause for the wildlife deaths is also suggested, a cause not associated with the introduction of toxins. 相似文献